Rt or rate of transmission has INCREASED!
The NJ Covid-19 rate of transmission has increased.
Rate of transmission
The rate of transmission of any virus (also known as “R0” or “R naught” or “Rt”) is the number of people that one person with the virus will infect. It is performed by running an equation that takes into account the hospitalization rate and the total number of virus diagnoses.
The important number to keep an eye on the rate of transmission is 1. Below 1, the virus will slow down until it is no longer, as one infected person will transmit to less than one other person, leading to a natural cessation of disease. Above 1, and the virus can increase in prevalence or the amount that is around.
States like New York and New Jersey have been using the transmission rate to determine whether or not it is safe to reopen, which is why random testing is important.
Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, the average R0 was difficult to assess because there was not enough testing to determine the infection rate. However, later data from studies determined the R0 to be around 5.7.
Rt of a virus can change depending on location, measures are taken to prevent transmission, etc. The highest Rt for COVID-19 recorded in New Jersey has been 2.5, early in April 2020.
NJ COVID-19 rate of transmission
Its current Rt is 0.81, which is the lowest since June 2020 and importantly below 1. Rt typically is more reliable if there is no vaccine present, so future estimates may be even higher than actuality since people who are exposed but have the vaccine will not be able to be infected.
A high contact rate (a large number of people that an infected person comes across on a given day) increases the Rt of any virus, so while the vaccinations continue to roll out, social distancing remains important. The trend of COVID-19 Rt is heading downward, which is an encouraging sign that the virus is slowing down.
For more information on the current status of COVID-19 in New Jersey, visit covid19.nj.gov.
For updated current Rt: https://covidactnow.org/us/new_jersey-nj/?s=1592532